Post by Gandalf The White on Jan 3, 2020 23:03:05 GMT 10
Blimey.
This seems pretty dangerous stuff.
Soleimani’s killing will be seen as a declaration of war
By Shahram Akbarzadeh
January 3, 2020 — 5.58pm
The killing of the Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in a US attack at Baghdad International Airport is a game-changer in relations between the US and Iran, with far-reaching implications for the region.
For months the two have been sabre rattling but staying away from red lines. Clearly, US President Donald Trump saw the Iranians as having crossed the red line when a US civilian was killed in a rocket attack blamed on Kataib Hezbollah, a Shiite militia with support from Iran. The US responded by a strike on the militia’s base, killing 25.
General Qassem Soleimani, centre, attends a meeting of a group of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps members with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, Iran, in October. CREDIT:AP
The subsequent attempt by Kataib Hezbollah to storm the US embassy in the fortified Green Zone in Baghdad was pushed back with ease by a demonstration of US firepower.
Trump used the opportunity to blame Iran for coordinating unrest and anti-US rioting in Baghdad and threatened to punish the Iranian leadership. The US appears to have followed through with that threat by killing Soleimani along with Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a senior leader of the Shiite militia, as well as an unnamed senior leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah. All three organisations have been listed as terrorist by the US.
The attack raises so many difficult questions. It points to the US capacity to have reliable intelligence on the movements of key figures, implying leaks in Iraqi government agencies and perhaps a level of collusion. This puts the Iraqi government in an impossible situation as it needs US commitment for reconstruction as well as Iranian friendship based on religious, cultural and historical links between the two countries.
For a short time it appeared that US, Iran and Iraq experienced a congruence of interests as Islamic State threatened all. Soleimani, a commander in the powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, played a key role in the push-back against IS by Iraqi Kurds, while the US pounded IS bases from the air. This allowed Baghdad to maintain good relations with Tehran and Washington. But the Iraqi government can no longer avoid this strategic decision and choose its camp.
The Baghdad airport attack has injected an enormous amount of heat in Iran-US relations. The Iranians have been dealing with crippling US sanctions, and watching with concern the US naval build-up in the Persian Gulf (aided by some US allies, including Australia).
Relations were already very tense as the US blamed Iran for sponsoring terrorist organisations, including Houthis in Yemen who have proven to be an unrelenting threat to Saudi Arabia. Now the US threat has hit at the heart of the Iranian leadership.
It’s difficult to see how Iran could respond with anything less than commensurate with the killing of Soleimani. Even before this event, the Iranian hardliners had cornered Iranian President Hassan Rouhani for being weak in the face of US bullying. Rouhani has been criticised in Iran for seeking diplomatic solutions when faced with a clear and present threat in the Persian Gulf. Now the gloves are off.
For his critics, including the Revolutionary Guards, Rouhani has been a failure and part of the problem. The Guards have made clear on many occasions that the US only understands the language of might - not diplomacy. The Iranian Supreme Leader and head of state has also said as much.
Soleimani’s killing will be seen as a declaration of war, an act of aggression against the state requiring a firm response. Stakes have been raised.
The Baghdad airport killing of Soleimani heralds a new chapter. The war of words seems to be replaced with simply war. Rouhani, even if he manages to hold on to his own office, is in no position to hold the Revolutionary Guards in check.
Professor Shahram Akbarzadeh is convenor of Middle East studies forum at ADI, Deakin University.
www.theage.com.au/world/middle-east/soleimani-s-killing-will-be-seen-as-a-declaration-of-war-20200103-p53ooi.html
This seems pretty dangerous stuff.
Soleimani’s killing will be seen as a declaration of war
By Shahram Akbarzadeh
January 3, 2020 — 5.58pm
The killing of the Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in a US attack at Baghdad International Airport is a game-changer in relations between the US and Iran, with far-reaching implications for the region.
For months the two have been sabre rattling but staying away from red lines. Clearly, US President Donald Trump saw the Iranians as having crossed the red line when a US civilian was killed in a rocket attack blamed on Kataib Hezbollah, a Shiite militia with support from Iran. The US responded by a strike on the militia’s base, killing 25.
General Qassem Soleimani, centre, attends a meeting of a group of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps members with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, Iran, in October. CREDIT:AP
The subsequent attempt by Kataib Hezbollah to storm the US embassy in the fortified Green Zone in Baghdad was pushed back with ease by a demonstration of US firepower.
Trump used the opportunity to blame Iran for coordinating unrest and anti-US rioting in Baghdad and threatened to punish the Iranian leadership. The US appears to have followed through with that threat by killing Soleimani along with Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a senior leader of the Shiite militia, as well as an unnamed senior leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah. All three organisations have been listed as terrorist by the US.
The attack raises so many difficult questions. It points to the US capacity to have reliable intelligence on the movements of key figures, implying leaks in Iraqi government agencies and perhaps a level of collusion. This puts the Iraqi government in an impossible situation as it needs US commitment for reconstruction as well as Iranian friendship based on religious, cultural and historical links between the two countries.
For a short time it appeared that US, Iran and Iraq experienced a congruence of interests as Islamic State threatened all. Soleimani, a commander in the powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, played a key role in the push-back against IS by Iraqi Kurds, while the US pounded IS bases from the air. This allowed Baghdad to maintain good relations with Tehran and Washington. But the Iraqi government can no longer avoid this strategic decision and choose its camp.
The Baghdad airport attack has injected an enormous amount of heat in Iran-US relations. The Iranians have been dealing with crippling US sanctions, and watching with concern the US naval build-up in the Persian Gulf (aided by some US allies, including Australia).
Relations were already very tense as the US blamed Iran for sponsoring terrorist organisations, including Houthis in Yemen who have proven to be an unrelenting threat to Saudi Arabia. Now the US threat has hit at the heart of the Iranian leadership.
It’s difficult to see how Iran could respond with anything less than commensurate with the killing of Soleimani. Even before this event, the Iranian hardliners had cornered Iranian President Hassan Rouhani for being weak in the face of US bullying. Rouhani has been criticised in Iran for seeking diplomatic solutions when faced with a clear and present threat in the Persian Gulf. Now the gloves are off.
For his critics, including the Revolutionary Guards, Rouhani has been a failure and part of the problem. The Guards have made clear on many occasions that the US only understands the language of might - not diplomacy. The Iranian Supreme Leader and head of state has also said as much.
Soleimani’s killing will be seen as a declaration of war, an act of aggression against the state requiring a firm response. Stakes have been raised.
The Baghdad airport killing of Soleimani heralds a new chapter. The war of words seems to be replaced with simply war. Rouhani, even if he manages to hold on to his own office, is in no position to hold the Revolutionary Guards in check.
Professor Shahram Akbarzadeh is convenor of Middle East studies forum at ADI, Deakin University.
www.theage.com.au/world/middle-east/soleimani-s-killing-will-be-seen-as-a-declaration-of-war-20200103-p53ooi.html
